This post is part of my Manchester United Match Reviews, focused on xG, shot quality, and the tactical moments that decided the game. Stats sources: FBref, SofaScore, WhoScored.
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Hey everyone,
Let’s not sugarcoat it drawing at home to 20th feels awful. It was flat. The kind of game where you keep waiting for the inevitable second goal, and it just… never arrives.
Another “we could’ve gone fourth” night that turns into “not again”.
But honestly? The surprise isn’t the draw. The surprise is that anyone is surprised. We’ve seen this version of United all season: moments where it looks like we’re about to kick on and then we don’t. That’s been the pattern. Missed opportunity after missed opportunity.
And that’s the uncomfortable truth: this is what this team currently is. Inconsistent. Capable of good spells, but not reliable enough to stack wins when the table opens up for us.
This is where we have to separate the emotion from the reality.
Ralf Rangnick once said the club needed “open heart surgery.” I strongly believe last season was that surgery - about as low as a modern United side can realistically sink, hopefully. And this season? This season is stabilization/recovery.
You don’t go straight from heart surgery to running a marathon. You rebuild. You take the boring steps. And you accept nights like this as part of the process, even when they feel unacceptable.
Context matters:
Injuries: No De Ligt, no Maguire, no Mainoo, no Bruno.
AFCON: Mbeumo + Amad gone (two of our few players who can create chaos on demand).
And if you looked at that squad last night, the starting XI and the bench, I honestly think they’d struggle against almost every team in this league. Not because they don’t care, but because the margin for error at this level is tiny, and we’re operating without half the parts you need to function properly.
None of that excuses a home draw. But it explains why we can have the ball and still feel like we’re playing with oven mitts on in the final third.
Let’s get into the autopsy.
Table of Contents
Last poll (Wolves Preview): The optimism was high. 100% of you voted for the following: “🔥 Early goal → routine win.”
Also… a lot of you read these and never vote. I see you.
How do you view that 1-1 draw? 👇
The Match in Numbers
We had the ball. We didn’t have the teeth.
Metric | Wolves | Man United | The Quick Read |
|---|---|---|---|
xG | 1.16 | 0.84 | We lost the chance-quality battle. |
Possession | 44% | 56% | Control without threat. |
Shots (On Target) | 11 (4) | 15 (6) | Volume, but not enough looks. |
Big Chances | 2 | 2 | Even on “big looks,” we didn’t separate. |
Corners | 4 | 8 | We pressured and still conceded from a corner. |
Aerials Won | 62% | 38% | The stat that explains the equalizer. |
This wasn’t Wolves coming to Old Trafford and dominating. It was more annoying than that: we had more territory, but they produced more danger per moment.
Key Stats You Didn't See on TV
1) The problem in one stat
The Stat (touches in the box — all situations): United 21, Wolves 23.
The Meaning: We had 56% possession, 8 corners, 15 shots… and still finished with fewer total touches in the box. That’s the story: we got near the area, but we didn’t live in it. Wolves’ moments in our box lasted longer and turned into more “second-phase” danger.
2) The shot quality crisis
The Stat: 15 shots, 0.84 xG → ~0.056 xG per shot.
The Meaning: This is what sterile domination looks like in numbers. Without Bruno/Mainoo (and without Amad/Mbeumo available), we end up settling for range, tight angles, and blocked lanes — shots that look busy but don’t scare anyone. You can rack up attempts like that. You don’t rack up goals.
3) Where the attacks came from
From open play penalty-box entries:
Where we actually arrived. United had 12 open-play box entries, 8 came down the left, and just 1 from the right. Lots of territory… not enough central, repeatable access.
United: 12 total (10 by pass, 2 by carry)
Left: 8 | Middle: 3 | Right: 1
Wolves: 9 total (6 by pass, 3 by carry)
Right: 5 | Left: 2 | Middle: 2
Translation: we lived down the left, barely arrived down the right, and didn’t consistently arrive centrally. That’s why it feels like “pressure” without that “they’re about to score” feeling.
United entered the box more in open play (12–9), but Wolves got more total box touches (23–21) meaning our entries were often one-and-done. We have to live in the box. Get deep into the box. Really explore the box…
The Tactical Breaking Point
The 45th-minute equaliser: the worst possible timing
We dropped points because we gave them oxygen right before halftime.
The Moment: Krejcí’s header (45’) from a corner.
The Shift: Zirkzee’s opener should’ve forced Wolves to open up. Instead we concede at the worst moment, and the second half turns into exactly what they want: slower tempo, more stoppages, more frustration… and a game where we’re “in charge” but never truly landing punches.
Player Ratings & Impact
Key performers based on the eye test and data.
Luke Shaw (6.8)
I thought Shaw was one of our few genuine “progress the game” outlets and the data backs it up.
Who drove us up the pitch. Martínez led with 12 progressive carries, and Shaw topped the left flank (4) which matches the eye test: most of our momentum and entries came from that side.
Open-play progressive passes (left side): 8 (team-high from the left)
Progressive carries (left side): 4 (team-high from the left)
And it matches what we saw: most of our box entries came down that flank (8 from the left).
He’s not just “recycled possession” anymore — he’s been a real driver of territory. I’ve got a full player report on Shaw coming next week, because I think the conversation around him is way harsher than the performances.
Casemiro (7.1)
This was one of those matches where you need someone to stop the game turning into a coin flip.
6 tackles (the “calm down” stat)
Also popped up in progression: 5 open-play progressive passes from the right (team-high on that side)
He wasn’t flashy, but he was functional — and with this squad, functional matters.
Lisandro Martínez (6.6)
With Bruno missing, the creative burden drops deeper. Licha basically became a one-man launchpad.
Martínez led United with 17 progressive passes, while Shaw was the main left-sided outlet (8) but progression still started deep more often than it finished in the box.
105 touches
17 open-play progressive passes (most in the match for United)
12 progressive carries (also most for United)
That’s great but it’s also the problem: too much of our “creation” starts 40 yards from goal, not 18.
Final Thoughts
Yes, it’s a bad result. You’re allowed to be angry. A home draw to a team on two points is not “fine.”
But it also shouldn’t shock anyone. This season has been full of these moments where the door opens and we don’t walk through it. We keep hovering near the edge of a run and then dropping points we can’t afford.
Right now, we still can’t reliably do the hardest job in football: break a low block when the burden is on us. When teams come at us, we can survive and counter. When they sit in and dare us to create, we’re still searching for solutions and with our creators missing, it becomes painfully obvious.
That doesn’t mean the plan is broken. It means we’re not finished building the tools yet and at the moment, a few of those tools are literally not available.
If this season ends around that top 6–9 range, that’s not the finished product. That’s the foundation. The real question is next year: can we add quality, get healthy, and turn this into a real top-four push?
Recovery isn’t linear. It’s slow. It’s annoying. And nights like this are exactly what rehab looks like.
Next up: Leeds away - loud, hostile, chaotic… and weirdly, that kind of game has suited us more than these slow “break them down” tests.
Onwards.