Table of Contents
The Game-by-Game Breakdown
1. vs Everton (H) | Loss 0-1
A statistical anomaly. We played against 10 men for 77 minutes yet failed to score.
✅ What Went Right: Not Much. Trying to find some positives here… We pinned them back with 70% possession and 70 final third entries. We limited Everton to just 0.21 xG.
❌ What Went Wrong: A Lot. Taking 25 shots to generate just 1.71 xG indicates a high volume of low-quality chances. We lacked the guile to break down a low block, and the lack of a clinical focal point up front (Zirkzee) meant all that possession amounted to nothing.
2. vs Tottenham (A) | Draw 2-2
A chaotic game saved by a 96th-minute set-piece.
✅ What Went Right: Resilience. Going down 2-1 in the 90th minute usually breaks this team. Finding a late equalizer through De Ligt [our 95th percentile aerial threat] showed character, and Casemiro was vital defensively with 4 tackles.
❌ What Went Wrong: Creative Output. We generated just 0.63 xG from open play. Relying on a header deep in stoppage time masks the fact that we struggled to create clear openings against a Spurs high line that usually offers chances.
3. vs Nottingham Forest (A) | Draw 2-2
A defensive collapse followed by a frantic recovery.
✅ What Went Right: Casemiro. In a game where the system failed, he stepped up with a goal and elite defensive metrics (top tackles and recoveries). He dragged the team to a point.
❌ What Went Wrong: Defensive Transition. We allowed Forest to generate 1.93 xG and take 17 shots. For a team with European ambitions, getting cut open that easily by a mid-table side in transition is alarming.
4. vs Brighton (H) | Win 4-2
The definition of running hot.
✅ What Went Right: Ruthless Efficiency. We scored 4 goals from just 1.29 xG. Bryan Mbeumo is currently converting half-chances at an elite rate. When you overperform your xG by +2.71, you win games comfortably. (I warned about this variance in our Trend Check back in October efficiency without control is a gamble.)
❌ What Went Wrong: Game Control. Even in a 4-2 win, we conceded 2 goals and allowed Brighton back into the match. We are outscoring opponents, not shutting them down.
5. vs Liverpool (A) | Win 2-1
A Smash and Grab at Anfield.
✅ What Went Right: The Low Block. We accepted the pressure, made 28 clearances, and blocked crucial shots. Maguire and De Ligt were immense aerially, and we took the few chances that fell our way.
❌ What Went Wrong: Luck. We cannot ignore that Liverpool generated 2.75 xG and missed 5 Big Chances. On another day, we lose this 4-1. We surrendered the initiative completely and relied on their finishing being poor.
Temperature Check: Where is your confidence level?
How We Fix This
The above games prove one thing: we are too open. To stop the chaos, we have to stop gambling on variance and start fixing the structure. Here is what the data suggests needs to change.
1. The Midfield Fix
The Dilemma: Amorim persists with Bruno Fernandes deep because he trusts him. As detailed in my Player Report earlier this month, Bruno is our best ball progressor. But while playing him deep guarantees we move up the pitch, it creates a catastrophic problem: transition defense.
The Problem: Bruno is a "ball hunter," not a "space holder." His natural instinct is to chase the play. When he misses an interception high up the pitch, Casemiro is left covering 40 yards of lateral space alone. We’ve all seen this and this is why Forest got 17 shots.
The Solution: Start Manuel Ugarte. Ugarte offers what Bruno cannot: positional discipline. He is a specialist "destroyer" who is happy to sit in the "rest defense" structure while others attack. By pairing Ugarte with Casemiro, we solidify the middle. Crucially, this frees Bruno to return to the #10 role where his high-risk passing leads to assists in the final third, rather than dangerous turnovers in our own half.
2. The Attack Fix
The Problem: We are relying heavily on Bryan Mbeumo scoring difficult chances (screamers, curlers) to win games.
The Solution: We need to generate High-Probability Chances. Instead of early crosses into a crowded box (which Zirkzee struggles with), we need to overload the wide areas to create cut-backs to the penalty spot. Our wing-backs (Dorgu/Amad) need to drive to the byline and pull the defense apart. We need to create tap-ins, not highlight-reel goals.
The Counter-Argument: You might argue, "But elite teams have elite finishers, that’s not luck, that’s skill. Real Madrid wins ugly all the time." That is true. But elite teams "win ugly" while controlling the game. They camp in the opponent's half and force them into mistakes. We are winning ugly while losing the territory battle (see: Liverpool, Forest). That isn't elite management; that is gambling on variance.
The Verdict
If you only look at the points tally, you might think we are turning a corner. But the "Everton Headache" I felt on Monday night wasn't a fluke. It was the inevitable crash of a team running on variance.
We have survived this 5-game run thanks to Casemiro’s resurgence and Mbeumo’s finishing. But we cannot survive this Christmas period playing "Basketball Football" this high-scoring, end-to-end chaos where we abandon defense and pray we outscore the opponent.
The Next Test: Watch the midfield in the next game. If Bruno is still collecting the ball off the center-backs, it means Amorim is doubling down on progression over protection. But if we see a sturdy double pivot and Bruno causing havoc between the lines, we might just turn this "lucky run" into a sustainable one.