United Trend Check: Winning on Efficiency, Not Control

Record: 3-0-2

xG: 7.30–8.45 (xG difference: −1.15)

SOT: 22–25

Shots taken inside the box: 61%

Possession: 43%

Fixtures: Arsenal (H), Man City (A), Chelsea (H), Liverpool (A), Brighton (H)

Record: 0-1-1

xG: 3.71–3.78 (xG difference: −0.07)

SOT: 9–12

Shots taken inside the box: 71%

Possession: 52%

Fixtures: Fulham (A), Brentford (A)

Record: 2-0-0

xG: 5.47–1.91 (xG difference: +3.56)

SOT: 12–6

Shots taken inside the box: 73%

Possession: 56%

Fixtures: Burnley (H), Sunderland (H)

Home split (5): 4-0-1

Away split (4): 1-1-2

Last 5 xG: 8.39–7.03 (United +1.36) → slight upward trend.

Season xG difference: +2.34 → modestly positive overall.

Big chances (last 5): 18–15 → chance quality narrowly in our favour.

Implication: Results are currently driven more by precision (finishing + saves) than control (volume/possession).

Shot-stopping swing (best): +1.32 goals prevented at Liverpool (A), Oct 19 (2–1) – 36% possession, 6 SOT faced. Lammens made the difference.

Worst: −0.70 at Man City (A), Sep 14 (0–3)… Bayindir

Most SOT faced: 8 at Brentford (A), Sep 27.

Best clean sheet: 0 conceded on 0.71 xG Against vs Sunderland (H), Oct 4.

Lowest xG Against: 0.43 vs Chelsea (H), Sep 20 (2–1).

Highest xG Against: 2.75 at Liverpool (A), Oct 19 (2–1) – most danger allowed, still won.

Most recoveries: 63 vs Brighton (H), Oct 25.

Most opponent box touches: 52 at Liverpool (A), Oct 19.

Most big chances conceded: 6 at Brentford (A), Sep 27 (1–3).

Highest xG For: 3.63 vs Burnley (H), Aug 30 (3–2) – best chance creation.

Most final-third passes: 134 passes vs Burnley (H), Aug 30.

Most big chances on low possession: 5 at Liverpool (A), Oct 19 (36% possession).

Most clinical: 4 goals from 1.29 xG For vs Brighton (H), Oct 25.

Most shots: 26 vs Burnley (H), Aug 30.

Top scorer: Bryan Mbeumo – 4 goals

xG total (team-high): Bruno Fernandes – 4.19

xG/90 (rate leader ≥360′): Benjamin Šeško – 0.55

Best over-performance vs xG: Casemiro – +1.08 (2 goals on 0.92 xG)

Biggest under-performance vs xG: Bruno Fernandes – −2.19 (2 goals on 4.19 xG)

Key passes per game (team-high): Bruno Fernandes – 2.7/g

Shots per game (team-high): Bryan Mbeumo – 2.6/g (Cunha 2.4/g)

Passes per game (volume): Bruno Fernandes – 56.2/g

Crosses completed per game: Bryan Mbeumo – 1.9/g

Tackles per game (leader ≥360′): Patrick Dorgu – 2.5/g

Interceptions per game (leader ≥360′): Leny Yoro – 1.2/g

Clearances per game (leader): Matthijs de Ligt – 5.2/g

Blocks per game (leader): Matthijs de Ligt – 0.7/g

Aerials won per game (leader): Matthijs de Ligt – 3.1/g (Sesko– 2.8/g as forward outlet)

Pass accuracy (≥360′ & ≥25 passes/g): Amad Diallo – 90.6%

Pass accuracy (centre-back): Matthijs de Ligt – 87.8%

Pass accuracy (full-back): Luke Shaw – 85.4%

Long balls completed per game (non-GK): Bruno Fernandes – 4.2/g

Brighton (H), Oct 25: 3 shots, 3 on target, 2 goals, 2 key passes, 9.16 rating. Dominated.

Last 3 (SUN H → LIV A → BHA H): 8 shots, 6 on target, 4 key passes, 2 goals - elite accuracy (~75% SOT) with end product.

Season context: Team-high 4 goals; 2.6 shots/g with 1.9 crosses completed/g.

Trend as target man: Last 3 starts (BRE A, SUN H, BHA H): 13 aerials won, 2 goals becoming a reliable outlet + penalty-box finisher.

Brentford (A), Sep 27: 6 shots, 4 on target, 1 goal, 7.54 rating.

Sunderland (H), Oct 4: 1 Goal, 4 aerials won, 8.11 rating - dominated the box.

Brighton (H), Oct 25: 6 aerials won, 2 shots (1 on target), 1 key pass, 7.41 rating - focal point that let runners (Mbeumo/Cunha) run in behind.

For: 5 set-piece goals (season to date).

Against: 5 total (2 vs Brighton from a direct FK + corner).

Read: Net zero. Priority: reduce cheap fouls and tighten near-post marking.

Possession 55–60% → 44% (MISS)

Shots 13–16; 10–12 Shots taken inside the box → 13; 7 Shots taken inside the box (PARTIAL)

shots-on-target rate of 33% or higher → 69% (9/13); won by 2 (LANDED)

Corners ≥6 → ≈1 SP goal → 1 corner; 0 SP goals (NO) — we conceded 2 from restarts

Territory: Hit at least 30 completed final-third passes by halftime → two-goal outcome likely.

Box control: Allow no more than 10 opposition shots in our box and no more than 2 big chances.

Finishing: Keep shots-on-target rate at 33% or higher → expect a two-goal margin; below 30% → one-goal scrap.

Restarts: Win 6 or more corners → expect one big chance; concede none from dead balls.