Match Sharpness Index (MSI): 49.1 (down from 51.1) → Severe Underperformance.
Why it fell: City away gave us a WMR of 38.7, pulling the 5-match average down. The CHI (club health index) is also still pulling us down.
Two fixes for next week:
Solid Defense is critical for WMR improvement. We're conceding too many high-quality chances – 4 big chances against City alone.
Goalkeeping performances must improve. Three consecutive matches with negative goals prevented is unacceptable. We need at least +0.20 next game.
Table of Contents
Understanding MSI
Match Sharpness Index (MSI) is a 0–100 rating of Manchester United’s overall form. It combines:
WMR (Weekly Match Rating): rolling last-5 games
CHI (Club Health Index): rolling last-3 months of club health
A guardrail that limits major week-to-week swings
Formula: MSI = 0.65 × WMR(Last 5) + 0.35 × CHI(Last 3).
MSI update due to the City match (WMR effect)
City 3–0 United - WMR 38.7 (Unacceptable). We had the ball more (55% possession) but couldn't make it count - just 2 shots on target from 12 attempts and only 1.51 xG. The real damage came at the other end. City carved out 4 big chances and 2.63 xGA against us. The core problems were terrible box protection and our keeper failing to bail us out when needed (goals prevented –0.60). Poor chance quality didn't help, but our defensive vulnerability is what killed us.
Starting point (post-Burnley + Sep CHI): MSI 51.13 (WMR of 64.65 vs Burnley)
After City (Sep 14)
WMR (5): 51.8 (down from ~55.0 post-Burnley)
MSI (no guardrail): 49.0
Guardrail: week-to-week cap ±2.0 applied (–2.12 → –2.0)
MSI (guardrail): 49.1
Takeaway: City’s 38.7 effectively erased the Burnley uptick. One very poor game can pull ~2 points off MSI; to rebound, we need a 65+ WMR next match with stable CHI.
Where 49.1 sits on the MSI ladder
60–64.9: Mid-table baseline
55–59.9: Domestic bottom-third
50–54.9: Relegation Form
45–49.9: Severe Underperformance ← 49.1 here (moved down from Relegation Form)
35–44.9: Crisis
What it will take to climb a tier
Context: We're at 49.1 trying to get into Relegation Form (50–54.9). Weekly changes are capped at ±2.0.
1) String together performances
Getting to 50–54.9 MSI: One 65+ WMR performance next week without our off-field stuff getting worse should give us +1 to +2 → around 50–51.
Getting to mid-50s: We need back-to-back 65–70 WMR weeks plus our club health improving. Not going to be easy with these Upcoming fixtures: Chelsea (H) – Sep 20, Brentford (A) – Sep 27, Sunderland (H) – Oct 4, Liverpool (A) – Oct 19, Brighton (H) – Oct 25.
2) Stop our club health from dragging us down
Goal: get CHI from ~43.9 up to low-50s so it helps instead of hurts.
Finance boost: Strong financial results from yesterday should help raise CHI.
But: if Amorim doesn't improve things on the pitch, club feel category will likely drop.
3) Fix on-pitch problems first (These give the quickest WMR boost)
Box protection (biggest issue right now). City carved out 4 big chances and 2.63 xGA against us. We need to tighten up on defense! This will directly improve our defensive numbers. What we've seen so far: when we controlled our box well (like against Burnley), WMR jumped above 60.
Shot quality. We managed 2 shots on target from 12 against City (17%) — nowhere near good enough. Next game: hit 30–40% on target and create 1–2 big chances to boost our attacking numbers.
Goalkeeping moments. Our keeper was –0.60 against City (worse than expected). We need our keeper to start giving a positive goals prevented. Even +0.20 or better – just one big save above expectation. A single crucial save often changes tight games and can bump WMR up 1–2 points on its own.
Bottom line
We're back in Severe Underperformance at 49.1, one tier below even Relegation Form. The City hammering basically wiped out our Burnley bounce, and because the system limits how much we can move each week, climbing out will take several good performances, not just one.
Our strong financial numbers will help a bit, but our club health at 43.9 is still dragging us down. If Amorim doesn't start delivering better results, fan sentiment will continue to tank and cancel out any financial positive gains for CHI.
The upcoming fixtures (Chelsea, Brentford, Sunderland, Liverpool, Brighton) are brutal. There's a way out if we raise our standards quickly: back-to-back 65+ WMR performances while getting our club health into the low-50s.
👉 Keep tracking: Mondays for match ratings, Thursdays for MSI updates, and monthly deep dives into how the club's doing overall.